By Ben Kouchnerkavich
Holland, Mich.—Typically, when we see the forecast calls for 6-10” of lake-effect snow in the Holland area, one can generally count on a snow day. This was not the case on Monday. We weren’t fleeced of a snow day- the snow simply didn’t arrive, or at least not in the manner that was expected.
The highest snow report received by the National Weather Service (NWS) for the Allegan/Ottawa county areas was an estimate of 5 inches in the Hudsonville location at 1:45 PM. Around 11:45 AM, I looked outside of Holland New Tech High School, upset to see that grass was still visible on the ground. My estimate is that we likely saw between 1-1.5” at that point.
As of 3:00 PM this afternoon, the snow continues to fall and is blowing around excessively. The 1:53 PM observation taken at the West Michigan Regional Airport (formerly known as Tulip City Airport) was indicating westerly winds sustained at 16 mph, gusting to 26 mph. This wind was knocking the wind chill down to -5. Visibilities were seen at a half of a mile.
The NWS continues to have a Lake-Effect Snow Advisory in effect for the Holland location until 5 AM Tuesday morning. They anticipate occasional whiteouts on area roadways (such as I-196, US-31, and M-40), as the snow we have seen is blown around by wind gusts up to 30 mph.
Now, as the article’s headline clearly indicated, the question to ask is “Where’s the Snow?” This was not a situation where the snow “skipped” over Holland and deposited higher accumulations just to the north, east, or south of us. The NWS had been concerned a day in advance that snow amounts would be held down due to a cold boundary layer and a low dendrite growth zone (DGZ), both of which worked to limit the size of the snowflakes we saw. Greg DeVoir is a certified trained professional within the National Weather Service’s Winter Weather Workshop. He has an excellent lesson on snow microphysics. He notes, “Snow-to-water ratio (density), precipitation phases, terrain/orographic effects, convective stability, and surface temperatures are commonly considered by forecasters. But the character (type, size, shape) of snowflakes themselves, determined by the intensity of lift, variations in moisture, and snow microphysics (vertical thermal profile), can play a crucial role in the resulting accumulations.”
There were many factors in play that were favorable for lake-effect snow. Lift, instability, and moisture were all available, which are very conducive to produce lake-effect snow. These are typically thought of as key components to the production of thunderstorms, or convection. For us, these factors were there to produce lake convection- in our case, lake-effect snow. Unfortunately for those of us who wanted to see a lot of snow fall upon us, this was not enough to overcome the low DGZ.
As a forecaster myself, it is a good learning tool for myself to take into account for future snowfall forecasting.
Click here to see additional information about snow microphysics from Greg DeVoir- Snow microphysics research and its relevance to forecasting - NOAA.
Holland, Mich.—Typically, when we see the forecast calls for 6-10” of lake-effect snow in the Holland area, one can generally count on a snow day. This was not the case on Monday. We weren’t fleeced of a snow day- the snow simply didn’t arrive, or at least not in the manner that was expected.
The highest snow report received by the National Weather Service (NWS) for the Allegan/Ottawa county areas was an estimate of 5 inches in the Hudsonville location at 1:45 PM. Around 11:45 AM, I looked outside of Holland New Tech High School, upset to see that grass was still visible on the ground. My estimate is that we likely saw between 1-1.5” at that point.
As of 3:00 PM this afternoon, the snow continues to fall and is blowing around excessively. The 1:53 PM observation taken at the West Michigan Regional Airport (formerly known as Tulip City Airport) was indicating westerly winds sustained at 16 mph, gusting to 26 mph. This wind was knocking the wind chill down to -5. Visibilities were seen at a half of a mile.
The NWS continues to have a Lake-Effect Snow Advisory in effect for the Holland location until 5 AM Tuesday morning. They anticipate occasional whiteouts on area roadways (such as I-196, US-31, and M-40), as the snow we have seen is blown around by wind gusts up to 30 mph.
Now, as the article’s headline clearly indicated, the question to ask is “Where’s the Snow?” This was not a situation where the snow “skipped” over Holland and deposited higher accumulations just to the north, east, or south of us. The NWS had been concerned a day in advance that snow amounts would be held down due to a cold boundary layer and a low dendrite growth zone (DGZ), both of which worked to limit the size of the snowflakes we saw. Greg DeVoir is a certified trained professional within the National Weather Service’s Winter Weather Workshop. He has an excellent lesson on snow microphysics. He notes, “Snow-to-water ratio (density), precipitation phases, terrain/orographic effects, convective stability, and surface temperatures are commonly considered by forecasters. But the character (type, size, shape) of snowflakes themselves, determined by the intensity of lift, variations in moisture, and snow microphysics (vertical thermal profile), can play a crucial role in the resulting accumulations.”
There were many factors in play that were favorable for lake-effect snow. Lift, instability, and moisture were all available, which are very conducive to produce lake-effect snow. These are typically thought of as key components to the production of thunderstorms, or convection. For us, these factors were there to produce lake convection- in our case, lake-effect snow. Unfortunately for those of us who wanted to see a lot of snow fall upon us, this was not enough to overcome the low DGZ.
As a forecaster myself, it is a good learning tool for myself to take into account for future snowfall forecasting.
Click here to see additional information about snow microphysics from Greg DeVoir- Snow microphysics research and its relevance to forecasting - NOAA.
