by Ben Kouchnerkavich
On
Thursday, November 8th, students at Holland New Tech High School were given the
privilege of meeting with a group of schools, including students from Nicaragua
on an Internet video chat. In their World Studies class, the current sophomores
at Holland New Tech have been participating in a project entitled, “Food,
Glorious Food,” which aims to help children in Nicaragua through the
Canada-based group Change for Children.
Nicaragua
is known for its biodiversity, with an abundance of rivers, creeks, streams,
and animals. The problems they are having with food in the country are helped
greatly by community gardens, where they grow sweet potatoes, tomatoes, and
carrots. One community garden costs only $2,000. During the video chat, Holland
New Tech student Khalil Torres asked the people in Nicaragua the question, “How
can we help?” The answer was that the country is in great need of money, which
can be used to go towards these community gardens.
Problems
with food production in Nicaragua are not helped by natural disasters that
plague the country with devastation. There is no advanced warning system at all
in the country for hurricanes and tornadoes. As a meteorology enthusiast, this
hit particularly close to home for me. In America, we have the luxury of
choosing to ignore advanced warnings.
On
May 22, 2011, at least 158 people were killed in Joplin, Missouri, when an EF5
tornado plowed through. An EF5 is the strongest on the EF (Enhanced Fujita)
scale, producing winds over 200 mph. The tornado struck at an estimated time of
5:40 PM CDT. The National Weather Service placed the first Tornado Warning for
the storm at 5:17 PM. That is an amazing amount of lead-time to place on a
tornado, giving 23 minutes to get to safety. The SPC (Storm Prediction Center)
in Norman, Oklahoma, issues severe weather outlooks across the United States up
to 8 days in advance. They had a slight risk of severe weather for the Joplin
area on May 20th (two days in advance). The SPC issues five severe weather
outlooks a day. The first outlook is issued at 1 AM CDT. At that time on May
22, the SPC was already forecasting “a 10% or greater probability of EF2-EF5
tornadoes within 25 miles (of Joplin).” At 8 AM CDT, The Storm Prediction
Center upgraded the severe weather outlook to a moderate risk of severe
weather. Some still ignored the warnings, despite having access to information
that could help them.
A
more recent example of Americans choosing to ignore advanced warnings was with
“Superstorm Sandy.” One model we look at in meteorology is called the GFS
(Global Forecast Model). This, like all other models, tends to have accuracy
decrease as they go out further in time. However, the GFS accurately predicted
the strength of Sandy going into the northeast 1-2 weeks in advance. Sandy was
predicted much more accurately than a typical regional severe weather outbreak.
I was watching some live streaming coverage of Hurricane Sandy online from
television stations along the east coast a few days before it hit that area. There
was an interview from the ABC station in New York, in which two young girls
were interviewed. Despite the mandatory evacuations being declared, the two
girls said they would stay, and that they weren't worried, because Hurricane Irene
“wasn't that bad.”
Speaking
as someone interested in going into the meteorology field as a career, this upsets
me. I think it is important that meteorologists don’t overly hype severe
weather events when communicating a forecast, but just deliver the facts. There
are some meteorologists who refer to “storms of epic proportions,” whereas
there are also some who significantly downplay potentially significant events.
I think a meteorologist ought to be neutral. Hurricane Irene was definitely a
storm that was hyped too much, which probably lead to young people forming
opinions that they need not worry. This was irresponsible, and it can lead to
citizens making dangerous choices in the future. Perhaps it should be a
criminal offense for people who decide to stay put during a time when there are
mandatory evacuations in place. Sandy was a very big system and caused a
catastrophic amount of damage. It is not logical to create an opinion of a
storm based on a previous storm, due to the extremely unpredictable and unique
characteristics that each storm possesses.
As
I said earlier, in America, we have the luxury of choosing to ignore advanced
warnings. Meanwhile there are people in Nicaragua who have had their lives ruined
by disasters such as the devastating Hurricane Mitch. This is because they don’t
have access to the amazing technology that we have. Meteorology is not an exact
science. When I met with Grand Rapids’ FOX 17 meteorologist Jon Shaner
recently, he clued me in on how meteorology is a relatively new science. As a
result, the general public needs to realize that there are going to be flaws
with forecasting and it is best to err on the side of caution when there is the
possibility of a storm that is going to be potentially dangerous.
We
have a choice to obey the alerts we are given. They don’t have that opportunity
in Nicaragua, and we shouldn’t take what we have for granted.
